Seminar - Modelling correlated failures in multicomponent systems

School of Mathematics and Statistics Colloquium

Speaker: Richard Arnold
Time: Thursday 25th May 2017 at 04:10 PM - 05:00 PM
Location: Cotton Club, Cotton 350
Groups: "Mathematics" "Statistics and Operations Research"

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Abstract

Multicomponent systems (cars, televisions, power plants) may experience failures - with correlations amongst failure times. Groups of components may also experience common cause, simultaneous failures. We present a novel, general approach to model construction and inference in multicomponent systems incorporating these correlations in an approach that is tractable even in very large systems. In our formulation the system is viewed as being made up of Independent Overlapping Subsystems. In these systems components are grouped together into overlapping subsystems, and further into non-overlapping subunits, each having simple failure processes. We will also present results from a model of delayed reporting of sub-critical faults in warranty analysis.

This is joint work with Stefanka Chukova (VUW) and Yu Hayakawa (Waseda University, Tokyo).

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